Trading activity from 1/22/09 to 3/26/09

Week One:

The market is on a sharp downtrend at this point, but it seems to be having a short bullish rally do to the change in presidency and promises of large bailouts. Due to market uncertainty and low overall consumer confidence, I decided to diversify my portfolio. I picked OSTE and AGN because they are pharmaceuticals resistant to a bearish economy. Since the U.S. is relying on China for much of their steel production I chose to buy a Chinese steel stock, CPSL. Apple was bought because it had a bullish triangle chart pattern, high volume on the downtrend, and an appealing valuation. FXEN was my last pick because it was an oil company coasting along a base with a good P/E ratio and positive earnings.

Week Two:

The market is continuing its short uptrend as I predicted. FXEN was sold because oil prices began to fall, thus hurting oil stocks. AAPL was sold because it had reached a peak on high volume. I bought another pharmaceutical, NABI, because it should be resistant to a failing economy. NGS, a natural gas stock was purchased because it was extremely oversold according to the CCI and the price oscillator technical indicators. Obama was also preaching for natural gas production at this time. LMT was purchased because it was a safe and solid defense stock to hold in an uptrend.

Week Three:

I sold OSTE this week because it was showing high volume and “overbought” signals. I made a large profit on this stock. I bought BWA and TWI this week because auto parts companies were showing higher earnings due to the tendency for people to fix cars rather than buy new ones in a depressed economy. I also bought the stock, RIO, because it was showing increased revenue and earnings. The P/B ratio also indicated that it might slightly be undervalued compared with to earnings. Mineral companies were on a rush this week because Americans sought refuge in gold. Gold has tangibility and value when the dollar falls.

Week Four:

This week I chose to sell CPSL because Obama started talking about raising tariffs on imported steel. This caused an unexpected drop in price. I also sold BWA and TWI because they simply were not doing what I thought they would and I was hoping to cut losses. I also sold NGS because it finished its typical choppy trading pattern for the week. The economy was extremely bad this week and I was content with relatively no positions in my portfolio.

Week Five:

I bought stock in PLA, or Playboy, because it was undervalued and is still a very prominent brand-name. I bought FXEN because it had a good profit margin, oil prices are lower, and it had a good chart pattern. I bought PDLI because it was a profitable pharmaceutical company that seemed to have hit a bottom. I sold AGN because its latest rally failed to break the two hundred day moving average. It also failed to rise higher than its previous peak, a bearish signal. I bought VCI this week because it was undervalued and had positive EPS. It also showed strong insider buys and got a B ranking from Market Edge, Jaywalk, and Merrill Lynch. Sadly, I had to sell virtually all these stocks in the same week because the market was so bad that nothing could possibly rise.

Week Six:

I bought BHP this week due to a recommendation from Jim Cramer on the Mad Money TV show. He said this would be a safe company in the recession because it is based in Australia and is not subject to Obama’s energy agenda. He was wrong in the short-term and I sold a few days later. I also bought and sold DEPO, a medical company, in the same week. It had great earnings and an innovative product. It also had a good chart, good volume, and a high valuation. Obama killed this stock by threatening to nationalize healthcare. I sold my shares right away.

Week Seven:

I got tired of trying to find bullish stocks in a bear market, so I decided to short everything this week. I bought all the Proshares Ultra-Short stocks I could find including SIJ, SSG, REW, MZZ, SKF, and TLL. I had the same reason for buying each one of these positions; the market is crashing. I took large profits from all of these positions and sold the same week. Next, I bought back VCI and then purchased WMT. Both of these companies are stable and profitable in a recession. VCI is a media company and was also less affected by the recession in general compared to other stocks. WMT or Wal-Mart will be amongst the first stocks to benefit from any upturn in the economy because Wal-Mart specializes in affordable merchandise.

Summary of Trades Table:

Date Trade Type Symbol Quantity Target Price Price Commission Total Cash Value Account Value
3/6/2009 9:57 AM Stock: Buy at Market Open WMT
421 n/a $50.15 $29.99 $21,143.14 $105,592.12
3/5/2009 9:57 AM Stock: Sell at Market Open SSG
115 n/a $79.71 $29.99 $9,136.66 $105,494.34
3/4/2009 1:59 PM Stock: Sell at Market CPLA
245 n/a $50.44 $29.99 $12,327.81 $104,970.98
3/4/2009 10:28 AM Stock: Sell at Market TLL
250 n/a $60.06 $29.99 $14,985.01 $106,456.40
3/4/2009 9:59 AM Stock: Sell at Market SKF
80 n/a $197.78 $29.99 $15,792.41 $105,635.66
3/4/2009 9:59 AM Stock: Sell at Market MZZ
170 n/a $82.45 $29.99 $13,986.68 $105,665.65
3/4/2009 9:57 AM Stock: Buy at Stop VCI
11200 $1.31 $1.36 $29.99 $15,261.99 $106,525.27
3/4/2009 9:55 AM Stock: Sell at Market REW
170 n/a $84.59 $29.99 $14,350.31 $108,365.86
3/4/2009 9:55 AM Stock: Sell at Market SIJ
100 n/a $102.99 $29.99 $10,269.01 $108,395.85
3/3/2009 9:57 AM Stock: Sell at Market Open BHP
400 n/a $34.84 $29.99 $13,906.01 $106,378.45
3/3/2009 9:57 AM Stock: Buy at Market Open SSG
115 n/a $81.21 $29.99 $9,369.14 $106,212.94
3/3/2009 9:57 AM Stock: Buy at Market Open SIJ
100 n/a $100.62 $29.99 $10,091.99 $106,463.92
3/2/2009 10:38 AM Stock: Sell at Market PDLI
3400 n/a $5.96 $29.99 $20,234.01 $105,251.86
3/2/2009 10:28 AM Stock: Buy at Limit BHP
400 $35.01 $35.01 $29.99 $14,033.99 $105,006.35
3/2/2009 8:59 AM Stock: Buy at Market Open CPLA
245 n/a $54.75 $29.99 $13,443.74 $102,283.98
3/2/2009 8:59 AM Stock: Buy at Market Open MZZ
170 n/a $77.45 $29.99 $13,196.49 $102,652.27
3/2/2009 8:59 AM Stock: Buy at Market Open TLL
250 n/a $58.97 $29.99 $14,772.49 $103,684.76
3/2/2009 8:59 AM Stock: Buy at Market Open SKF
80 n/a $179.46 $29.99 $14,386.79 $103,843.55
3/2/2009 8:59 AM Stock: Buy at Market Open REW
170 n/a $83.75 $29.99 $14,267.49 $104,135.35
2/27/2009 9:57 AM Stock: Sell at Market Open DEPO
9880 n/a $1.99 $29.99 $19,631.21 $103,399.61
2/26/2009 9:57 AM Stock: Sell at Market Open PFE
10 n/a $13.21 $29.99 $102.11 $106,282.31
2/26/2009 9:57 AM Stock: Sell at Market Open VCI
14935 n/a $1.42 $29.99 $21,177.71 $107,357.75
2/26/2009 9:57 AM Stock: Buy at Limit DEPO
9880 $2.16 $2.16 $29.99 $21,370.79 $108,482.43
2/24/2009 9:58 AM Stock: Sell at Market Open FXEN
6000 n/a $2.89 $29.99 $17,310.01 $108,341.27
2/24/2009 9:58 AM Stock: Sell at Market Open PLA
13700 n/a $1.63 $29.99 $22,301.01 $108,782.26

Date Trade Type Symbol Quantity Target Price Price Commission Total Cash Value Account Value
2/23/2009 9:57 AM Stock: Sell at Market Open AGN
500 n/a $40.48 $29.99 $20,210.01 $107,521.50
2/18/2009 9:57 AM Stock: Buy at Market Open PDLI
3400 n/a $6.20 $29.99 $21,109.99 $108,430.48
2/17/2009 11:52 AM Stock: Sell at Market ETQ
6055 n/a $3.82 $29.99 $23,100.11 $108,960.13
2/17/2009 9:58 AM Stock: Buy at Market Open FXEN
6000 n/a $3.49 $29.99 $20,969.99 $112,401.47
2/17/2009 9:57 AM Stock: Buy at Limit PLA
13700 $1.65 $1.65 $29.99 $22,634.99 $113,496.26
2/13/2009 9:56 AM Stock: Sell at Market Open TWI
2200 n/a $7.77 $29.99 $17,064.01 $112,201.50
2/13/2009 9:56 AM Stock: Sell at Market Open NGS
2466 n/a $9.42 $29.99 $23,199.73 $112,083.53
2/12/2009 11:41 AM Stock: Buy at Market ETQ
6055 n/a $3.59 $29.99 $21,767.44 $108,861.28
2/12/2009 9:57 AM Stock: Buy at Market Open NGS
2466 n/a $8.58 $29.99 $21,188.27 $109,042.43
2/12/2009 9:57 AM Stock: Buy at Market Open VCI
14935 n/a $1.45 $29.99 $21,685.74 $109,072.42
2/10/2009 2:19 PM Stock: Sell at Market BWA
1000 n/a $19.96 $29.99 $19,930.01 $110,176.61
2/10/2009 9:56 AM Stock: Sell at Market Open NGS
2300 n/a $9.29 $29.99 $21,337.01 $111,713.50
2/10/2009 9:56 AM Stock: Sell at Market Open CPSL
14300 n/a $1.20 $29.99 $17,130.01 $111,886.49
2/9/2009 9:58 AM Stock: Sell at Market Open RIO
600 n/a $17.63 $29.99 $10,548.01 $111,466.18
1/29/2009 11:15 AM Stock: Buy at Market Open RIO
600 n/a $14.58 $29.99 $8,777.99 $109,118.56
1/29/2009 11:15 AM Stock: Buy at Market Open BWA
1000 n/a $18.54 $29.99 $18,569.99 $109,408.55
1/29/2009 11:14 AM Stock: Buy at Market Open TWI
2200 n/a $8.76 $29.99 $19,301.99 $110,428.54
1/27/2009 12:13 PM Stock: Sell at Limit OSTE
9400 $2.50 $2.50 $29.99 $23,470.01 $108,339.53
1/27/2009 10:40 AM Stock: Sell at Market Open LMT
50 n/a $83.12 $29.99 $4,126.01 $107,478.42
1/27/2009 10:40 AM Stock: Buy at Market Open NGS
2300 n/a $8.56 $29.99 $19,717.99 $106,749.41
1/26/2009 9:58 AM Stock: Buy at Market Open PFE
10 n/a $16.76 $29.99 $197.59 $102,596.20
1/26/2009 9:57 AM Stock: Buy at Limit LMT
50 $81.25 $81.25 $29.99 $4,092.49 $102,639.69
1/26/2009 9:57 AM Stock: Sell at Limit FXEN
3600 $2.77 $2.77 $29.99 $9,942.01 $102,705.68
1/26/2009 9:55 AM Stock: Sell at Market Open NABI
5200 n/a $3.33 $29.99 $17,286.01 $103,619.67
1/26/2009 9:55 AM Stock: Sell at Market Open AAPL
120 n/a $86.82 $29.99 $10,388.41 $103,834.46

Date Trade Type Symbol Quantity Target Price Price Commission Total Cash Value Account Value
1/22/2009 1:15 AM Stock: Buy at Market Open AAPL
120 n/a $79.39 $29.99 $9,556.79 $105,674.05
1/22/2009 1:12 AM Stock: Buy at Market Open FXEN
3600 n/a $2.50 $29.99 $9,029.99 $104,948.04
1/22/2009 1:10 AM Stock: Buy at Market Open CPSL
14300 n/a $1.29 $29.99 $18,476.99 $103,548.03
1/22/2009 1:03 AM Stock: Buy at Market Open OSTE
9400 n/a $1.91 $29.99 $17,983.99 $101,604.02
1/22/2009 1:01 AM Stock: Buy at Market Open NABI
5200 n/a $3.51 $29.99 $18,281.99 $99,970.01
1/22/2009 12:57 AM Stock: Buy at Limit AGN
500 $38.76 $38.76 $29.99 $19,409.99 $100,000.00

Summary:

How I made my stock decisions:

The first things I look at when I pick a stock are the leading U.S. economic indicators. I use these along with T-bond prices and the strength of the dollar to make a prediction on market direction. I also tend to look at what is happening in Asian markets. This information helps me decide whether to go long or short. The second step in picking stocks is based off of seasonality’s and politics. In this step I decide which market sector will provide the most lucrative opportunity. Finally I screen for stocks with a P/E ratio between five and ten that have positive earnings and a price less than five dollars. I narrow these results down further by completing a technical analysis using charts and often I also look at income statements. I narrow down my choices one last time by taking into account upcoming announcements and insider trading activity on specific stocks.

My Best Buys:

My best buy was a medical/pharmaceutical company called Osteotech. They are in the pharmaceutical business which is somewhat recession resistant. Since they also deal with stem cells in a portion of their research, I believe they benefited from a democratic president who eased the laws regarding stem cell research. The market was also in a short rally after a huge selloff when I purchased this stock. My second best pick was when I shorted the financial sector with SKF. It was clear that all financials were in turmoil and this was an easy pick. As Citibank and AIG crashed the whole industry suffered.

My Two Worst Buys:

My worst buy was certainly Depomed, a medical equipment manufacturing company. The day after I bought DEPO, Obama made a speech to nationalize healthcare. This would severely hurt the profits of any healthcare company and a selloff soon occurred. This was a horrible buy, yet I had no idea Obama was scheduled to make this speech. My second worst buy was CPSL, or China Pacific Steel. The United States recently had a policy of shipping much of its steel from overseas. A few days after I purchased CPSL, Obama announced his agenda to increase tariffs on steel imports to raise money for his bailout plans. This policy would severely hurt the profits of CPSL and the stock price coincidentally fell. Both of my two worst buys were based off of good information about markets; however, Obama did not want me to make any money during this time period.

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